United Nations World Population Prospects report
said on Wednesday that India would in six years sooner than previously
forecast overtake China and become the world’s most populous country.
John Wilmoth, Head of the UN Population division
said in New York, that the report indicated that Nigeria was on course
to outstrip the US by 2050 to become the third largest population.
He said that the current global population of 7.3
billion was forecast to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in
2100, slightly above the last set of UN projections.
Wilmoth said that most growth would happen in developing regions, particularly Africa.
He said that the demographic forecasts were
crucial for designing and implementing the new global development goals
being launched later in 2015 to replace the Millennium Development
Goals.
“The concentration of growth in the poorest
countries will make it harder to eradicate poverty, combat hunger and
expand schooling and health systems.
Wilmoth
said that research by experts predicted that Africa would account for
more than half the world’s population growth in the next 35 years.
He said that 10 African countries which include
Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger,
Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are projected to increase their
population’s five-fold or more by 2100.
“Future population growth is highly dependent on
the path of future fertility, as relatively small changes in fertility
can, projected over decades, generate large differences in total
population.
“In recent years, fertility has declined in almost
all parts of the world, while life expectancy has increased
significantly in the poorest countries, rising from 56 to 62 per cent
since the beginning of the century,’’ he said.
He said that the report indicated that declining fertility and rising life expectancy mean the world was getting greyer.
Wilmoth said that as a result of this most regions
would have an ageing population, starting with Europe where one third
of the population was projected to be over 60 by 2050.
Wilmoth said, “Globally, the number of people aged
80 or over – currently 125 million – is projected to more than triple
by 2050 and to increase more than seven times by 2100.
“But populations in many regions are still young. In Africa, children under 15 account for two fifths of the population.
“The large number of young people in Africa who
will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own,
ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size
and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades.”
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